The $100,000 experiment

What people do with $100,000 of fake money

Our stock market game gives every new player $100,000 that isn't real, and no rules about what to do with it. So far 4.9 million accounts have made 65 million trades. This is a close look at a random sample of them: 62,000 players and the 800,000 trades they made.

How we got the numbers, and what they can't tell you

100K100KTHE THREE INVESTEERS PLAY BANKONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS$100,000$100,000TI 0100000 ANOT REAL MONEY

The short version. Tap a card to read more, or share the one that surprises you.

SpainXRP▲ up100x59 sec−$99AustriaS&P 500▲ up20x73 min−$10ItalyBitcoin▼ down20x76 sec+$29United StatesUS Cotton▲ up20x39 sec+$28United StatesNasdaq 100▲ up20x37 sec+$83United StatesCrude oil▲ up20x18 sec+$35FranceMU▲ up100x26 sec+$371ItalyBitcoin▲ up5x81 min−$15United KingdomLitecoin▲ up20x2 hours−$355AustraliaFTSE 100▲ up20x44 hours−$461CanadaMeta▲ up10x15 hours+$81United KingdomStellar▲ up19 hours+$366AustriaVirgin Galactic▲ up20x79 sec−$7GermanyGold▲ up20x3 hours+$34United StatesNEO▲ up20x5 min+$597United KingdomSilver▲ up20x21 hours+$3,670United StatesUBER▲ up20x25 hours+$82United StatesBitcoin▲ up100x7 min−$2,664United StatesNatural gas▲ up100x3 min+$6GermanyNvidia▲ up20x4 days+$2,003United StatesBitcoin▲ up10x4 min+$8United StatesBitcoin▼ down20x5 hours+$138United StatesDow Jones▼ down100x53 sec+$19United StatesBitcoin▲ up20x23 sec−$5GermanyNasdaq 100▼ down20x21 hours−$1,834United StatesBrent oil▲ up100x13 hours+$3,360AustraliaSNAP▲ up9 min−$16United StatesLitecoin▲ up100x17 sec−$143NetherlandsNatural gas▼ down20x10 days+$7,629United StatesNetflix▼ down20x6 min+$30United StatesFTSE 100▲ up20x25 hours+$617AustraliaStellar▲ up20x5 min+$48NorwayBitcoin▲ up5x23 days+$101United StatesSilver▲ up100x41 sec+$1,017NorwayBitcoin▲ up100x69 sec+$61ItalyBitcoin▲ up20x8 days−$169United StatesBitcoin▼ down100x21 sec+$124AustraliaPlatinum▲ up20x10 sec+$76United StatesBitcoin▲ up100x22 sec+$411United StatesBitcoin▲ up20x10 min+$28United StatesBitcoin▼ down100x20 sec+$22GermanyEthereum▲ up20x2 hours+$309AustriaGameStop▲ up20x65 sec+$108SpainCrude oil▼ down20x37 min−$6IrelandVirgin Galactic▼ down19 hours+$107GermanyEthereum▲ up20x12 sec+$7United StatesGE▲ up100x19 hours+$3,952NetherlandsAMC▲ up20x11 days+$45,034United StatesNasdaq 100▼ down100x20 sec+$8GermanyXRP▲ up100x34 hours+$11,785GermanyBitcoin▲ up20x3 min+$138United KingdomNasdaq 100▼ down20x58 min+$183GermanyBitcoin▲ up100x20 hours+$5,200FranceBitcoin Cash▲ up20x23 min+$207United StatesGold▲ up100x4 min+$42United StatesTron▲ up100x76 sec+$285United StatesEthereum▲ up34 days+$158United StatesGold▼ down20x10 min+$158ItalyFR40▲ up8 days+$8United StatesEthereum▼ down20x12 sec−$18

The scoreboard

Most players made money. Fewer than one in five beat an index fund.

64% of the players who traded are ahead of the $100,000 they started with. That sounds good until you compare it with doing nothing.

Put the same $100,000 into an S&P 500 index fund on the day of the first trade, never look at it again, and you beat four players in five. The players had tools an index fund doesn't have: 100x leverage, bets on falling prices, and a game that never forces them to sell.

$95is what the typical player has made on their $100,000

How many players beat buying one thing and leaving it

19 of 100 players did better than putting the $100,000 into the S&P 500 on day one.

S&P 500, bought and left alone, made$33,800
The typical player made$95
Players who made any money at all64%

Each player is compared with putting the whole $100,000 into one thing on the day of their first trade and never touching it. "Made" is the gain for the typical player's start date.

One reason is that most of the money never leaves the wallet. A single trade can stake $5,000 at most, and the typical player stakes $10,000 in total, across everything they ever do. Only 13% put as much as $100,000 to work.

So most accounts barely move: 69% ended within 10% of where they started. The extremes are lopsided. One player in 48 turned $100,000 into more than a million, and about one in 22 lost more than half.

Where the accounts ended up

Lost more than 10%
8.3%
Lost up to 10%
28%
Gained up to 10%
41%
Gained 10% to 100%
12%
Doubled or more
9.1%
Ten times or more
2.1%

The first move

Almost half of all first trades are Bitcoin

Hand a hundred people $100,000 and 47 of them buy Bitcoin before anything else. Apple, the most popular share, is the first pick of 9. The opening move is rarely a careful one.

1 in 8first trades is placed at 100x, the highest leverage the game allows

A hundred first trades

Bitcoin first, by a distance. Apple is the most popular share. Each dot is one real first trade, chosen so that the hundred match all 38,000 in the sample. Tap or point at a dot to see it.

Speed

Three trades in ten are over within a minute

Only 8% of trades are held for more than a week. With nothing real to lose, most people don't invest. They click.

Clicking has a price. Buy something with no leverage and sell it within a minute, and you end in profit 39% of the time: the price has hardly moved, and the gap between the buying and the selling price is already gone. A trade held for between a day and a week ended in profit 74% of the time.

7 minis how long the middle trade lasts before it is closed

How long a trade was held, and how often it won

Held forUnder a minute
Share of all trades30%
Ended in profit57%
The middle trade made+0.01%
Share of all trades
Ended in profit
50%
60%
70%
80%
57%
Under 1 min<1m1–5 min1–5m5–60 min5–60m1–24 hours1–24h1–7 days1–7dOver a week7d+Never closedOpen

Point at or tap a column to read it. Prices mostly rose over these years, which favours anyone who waited.

Leverage

Three trades in four are made with borrowed money

Leverage means trading with more money than you put in. At 20x, a 1% move in the price changes your stake by 20%, in either direction. The game opens every order with no leverage selected. Only 25% of trades leave it that way. The most common choice is 20x, the highest setting that is always free.

Leverage does not make trades win more often so much as it makes them end further from where they started. At 100x, a third of trades gained half the stake or more, and one in ten lost nearly all of it.

100xis the setting on 16% of all trades. A 1% move the wrong way takes the whole stake, and the game lets it keep going.

How 100 trades ended, by leverage

100x

16% of all trades use 100x.

  • Lost nearly all of the stake, or more10
  • Lost some20
  • Gained some37
  • Gained half the stake or more33

100 squares for every 100 trades made at this leverage. Drag the slider to change it. The game never closes a losing trade for you, so high leverage looks kinder here than it would at a real broker.

Nobody starts out this way. On their first trade, 52% of players use no leverage at all. By their thirtieth, only 27% of the same players still go without. The rush to 100x comes early, around the fifth trade. Bets on falling prices and the size of the stake keep creeping up after that.

The same players, trade by trade

On the 1st trade52%
On trade 3027%
Players followed5,593
0%
30%
60%
1st trade10th20th30th

The same 5,593 players throughout: everyone in the sample who went on to make at least 30 trades. Move across the chart to read any trade.

After a loss

After a loss, people come back faster and bet more

Poker players call it tilt. Traders call it revenge trading: the urge to win it back at once. It shows up plainly here. The trade after a loss starts sooner, more often carries more leverage and a bigger stake than the one before, and ends in profit less often.

65%of the trades that follow a loss are opened within a minute of it

What the next trade looked likeafter a winafter a loss
Started the next trade within a minute
57%
65%
Raised the leverage
12%
15%
Raised the stake
11%
14%
The next trade ended in profit
68%
52%

155,138 trades that followed a loss and 237,883 that followed a win. Comparing each player only with themselves (2,454 players with at least ten of each), the pattern holds: after a loss they raise the leverage more often (+3.2 points), raise the stake more often (+2.3), and the next trade wins less often (−4.9 points).

Getting out

People take their wins and sit on their losses

Finance has a name for this, the disposition effect, and it is one of the best documented habits there is: sell what has gone up, hold on to what has gone down.

It is easy to see here. Take the trades people closed by hand within a day. Over a single day a price is about as likely to be 1% up as 1% down, so if people closed their trades without looking at the result, gains and losses of the same size would turn up equally often. They don't.

2.7×as many trades are closed at a small gain as at an equally small loss

Trades closed by hand within a day, by how far the price had moved

Closed at a gain108,890
Closed at a loss of the same size40,115
Gains taken for every loss taken2.7

289,220 trades that were closed by hand between a minute and a day after they were opened. Moves smaller than 0.1% are left out: there the gap between the buying and the selling price decides the result.

The losses nobody takes don't go away. They sit in trades that are still open: 19% of the open trades have lost more than their whole stake. Among the trades people chose to close, it is 1.8%.

Stops and noise

A stop 0.08% from the entry lasts about six minutes

Every entry and every exit in the sample is a price at a moment. Put Bitcoin's 360,000 fills in order and you have a tick chart, and a tick chart lets you measure noise: how far the price typically is from where it was a minute ago (0.03%), an hour ago (0.25%), a day ago (1.3%).

Sixty times the time, eight times the distance: noise grows with the square root of time. That turns a stop into a statement about time. A random walk first touches a level about when its typical move has grown to that distance, so how far away the stop is says how long the trade is likely to last, before the idea behind it has had any say.

6 minis how long the stopped-out 20x Bitcoin trades lasted. The stop's distance alone predicts 6.

Where the stop and the target go, and how long the stop lasts

Stop, from the entry0.08%
Target, from the entry0.25%
Reward to risk3.0 to 1
Stopped-out trades lasted5.5 min
The typical plan drawn to scale on hourly candles: Bitcoin, Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024
How far Bitcoin typically moves in a given time, and the time it takes to move as far as the stop
0.02%
0.05%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
1%
2%
no leverage5x10x20x100x
30 s1 min5 min30 min1 h4 h1 day
  • typical move after that long
  • each leverage: its stop distance, and how long its stopped-out trades lasted

At 20x, the stop sits 0.08% away. Bitcoin typically moves that far in 5.9 min. The trades that were stopped out lasted 5.5 min.

364,668 Bitcoin entries and exits, read as a tick chart. The typical move is the median distance between one fill and the fill nearest that much later; both axes are logarithmic, so a square-root law is a straight line. Stop and target distances are read off the trades that reached them (3,734 stopped out and 2,804 at target for this leverage; 46% were closed by hand first).

A stop-loss closes a trade once it has lost a set amount; a target closes it at a set gain. At 20x the typical Bitcoin plan puts the stop 0.08% below the entry and the target 0.25% above: 3 to 1, a plan that only has to work 25% of the time. Noise covers 0.08% in 5.9 minutes. The stopped-out trades lasted 5.5 minutes.

It holds along the ladder. At 100x the curve predicts 9.4 minutes and the stopped-out trades lasted 8.7 minutes; at 5x it is 44 minutes against 41 minutes. Only 10x strays: 60 minutes predicted, 26 minutes lasted. For scale, Bitcoin's ordinary daily range is 2.7%, so a 0.08% stop is about 1/32 of a normal day. The reward-to-risk ratios are sound. The distances are the size of the noise.

Plans are the exception in any case: 15% of trades carry a stop, and 46% of the trades that have both a stop and a target are closed by hand before either is reached.

Betting on falls

A third of Bitcoin bets are on a fall, whatever the price does

Players can bet that a price will drop as easily as that it will rise. Bitcoin went from $16,966 to a peak of $122,569 over these years, and through all of it roughly 32 in every 100 Bitcoin trades kept betting it would fall.

1 in 4trades is a bet that the price will drop

Bitcoin, week by week

Week ofOct 2, 2025
Bitcoin price$122,569
Bets on a fall33%
Bitcoin trades in sample1,182
Bitcoin price
$0k
$70k
$140k
Share of Bitcoin trades that bet on a fall average 32%
0%
30%
60%
2023202420252026

Move or drag across the chart to read any week. 196 weeks, 184,401 Bitcoin trades.

In markets that mostly rose, that was the expensive habit. Among players with five or more trades, those who almost never bet on falls are far more likely to be ahead.

Players in profit, by how often they bet on falls

Almost never bet on falls
76%
A bit of both
62%
Mostly bet on falls
53%

Timing

Their timing is no better than picking a day at random

Did the price go the way they bet? We checked every bet a week after it was made. Bets on a rise were right 52.9% of the time, and bets on a fall 47.1%.

That looks like a small edge for the buyers until you compare it with no skill at all. Make the same bets on a random day of the same month and you are right 53.1% and 47.3% of the time. Choosing the moment added nothing.

53%of bets on a rise were right a week later. A random day scores 53% too.

Did the price go their way?

Bets on a rise that were right52.9%
A random day instead53.1%
Bets on a fall that were right47.1%
A random day instead47.3%
Right a week later, by what the price did the week beforebets on a risebets on a fall
Fell 10% or more30% of trades bet on a fall
Fell 3% to 10%29% of trades bet on a fall
Barely moved25% of trades bet on a fall
Rose 3% to 10%25% of trades bet on a fall
Rose 10% or more26% of trades bet on a fall
30%the line is 50%, a coin flip70%

676,180 bets on 45 widely traded assets. A bet counts as right if the price was higher (for a bet on a rise) or lower (for a bet on a fall) seven days later, whenever the trade itself was closed. "A random day" is the same bet made on a random day of the same month.

The one moment when timing clearly mattered is just after a sharp fall, and the crowd got it backwards. When a price has dropped 10% in a week, more people bet on a further fall (30% of trades, against 25% in a quiet week), and they are right only 39% of the time. Buying that same dip was right 59% of the time.

On Bitcoin's twenty worst days, 38% of Bitcoin trades were bets on a fall. On its twenty best days it was 26%. People bet on a fall after it has already happened.

Loved and hated

Boring won. Bitcoin and the meme stocks did worst.

Put every widely traded asset on one chart and two things stand out. The dull ones had the best record: trades in the Russell 2000, the FTSE 100, the S&P 500 and Microsoft ended in profit about three times in four.

The exciting ones had the worst. Virgin Galactic, Plug Power and AMC sit at the bottom, and Bitcoin, the most traded asset of all, is not far above them. Crypto is also what people most like to bet against. Almost nobody bets against Microsoft.

60%of Bitcoin trades ended in profit. For the S&P 500 it was 73%.

Every widely traded asset, by how it was traded and how that went

  • Crypto
  • Shares
  • Indexes
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
Trades that ended in profit ↑
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
20%
30%
40%
Share of its trades that were bets on a fall →

Every asset with at least 2,000 trades in the sample (53 of them). The bigger the circle, the more it was traded. Tap or point at one to read it.

Forgotten trades

One trade in ten was never closed. Those did best of all.

People bought something, wandered off and never came back.

It is the oldest finding in investing, rediscovered by accident: the people who did nothing beat the people who kept busy.

72%of the trades still open were opened more than a year ago

What $10,000 turned into

Bought, then sold57% of these ended in profit
$10,000
Bought, then forgotten71% of these are in profit today
$10,000

Ordinary purchases with no leverage: 29,385 that were never closed, valued at today's prices after years in which most markets rose. The thin line marks the $10,000 put in.

By what was boughtsoldforgotten
Crypto
+1%
+27%
Shares
+2%
+56%
Indexes
+1%
+35%
Commodities
+1%
+33%
Currencies
+0%
+3%

Winners

Nearly all of the profit belongs to a few, and they all won it the same way

Add up everyone's profit and it is anything but evenly spread. The top 10% of players hold 92% of it.

39%of all the profit is held by the top 1% of players

Who holds the profit

The top1%of players made39%of all the profit.
Players
Profit

Drag to widen the group. 64% of players who traded are in profit at all.

What did the winners do that everyone else didn't? Not much that looks like skill. Nearly every one of them used the maximum 100x leverage, they rarely bet on prices falling, and for most of them the trade that made the difference is one they opened and never closed.

In a game with rising markets and no forced selling, a 100x bet on a rise is a lottery ticket that never expires. The leaderboard is the list of people holding a winning one.

The top 1% against everyoneeveryonethe top 1%
Used 100x leverage at least once
42%
99.7%
Average leverage across their trades
22x
56x
Share of their trades that bet on a fall
19%
8%
Their single best trade was at 100x96%
It was a bet on a rise99.7%
It has never been closed85%

The top 1% are 381 players who are each at least $1,479,000 ahead. On average 50% of a top player's profit comes from one trade.

iPhone vs Android

Android players did better than iPhone players, in every year

We did not expect this one. The game, the prices and the starting money are identical on both, yet 65% of Android players are ahead against 62% of iPhone players. The gap is there whichever year people started in.

We don't have a good explanation. Treat it as a curiosity, not as a verdict on anyone's phone.

5.3points separate Android from iPhone players in the United States, where the two groups are the same size

Players in profitiPhoneAndroid
All players
United States only
Started in 2023
Started in 2024
Started in 2025
Started in 2026
56%share of players who are ahead74%

23,789 Android and 13,418 iPhone players who placed at least one trade. "Started in" is the year of the first trade. iPhone players use 100x a little more often (18% of trades against 15%).

Countries

Where you are from matters less than you would think

People in very different places trade in strikingly similar ways, with a few local habits. These are the 17 countries with the most players in the sample. Pick one to see where it sits.

United States stands out for trades in crypto: 46%, the 2nd highest of the 17 countries.

Trades at the maximum 100x leverage18% 4th highest of 17
12%of all trades34%
Trades in crypto46% 2nd highest of 17
38%of all trades50%
Bets on prices falling24% 11th highest of 17
14%of all trades29%
Trades closed within a minute32% 6th highest of 17
23%of closed trades35%
Trades never closed11% 6th highest of 17
7%of all trades14%
Players in profit63% 14th highest of 17
59%of players who traded69%

Each dot is a country; the large one is United States. The tick marks the middle country.

The record book

Somebody has held a 100x bet on Bitcoin for five years

Averages hide the people at the edges. These are the extremes of the sample: one player or one trade each, with nothing that identifies anyone.

25,717trades were made by a single player, the busiest in the sample

The record book1,845 daysThe oldest trade that is still openBitcoin at 100x, opened on 16 September 2021. The $5,000 stake is now worth $396,963.
The record book$2,116,919The biggest win on one trade$5,000 on XRP at 100x, held for 497 days.
The record book−$1,789,608The biggest loss on one trade$5,000 against Bitcoin Cash at 100x, left open for 294 days. The game never stepped in.
The record book505winning trades in a rowThe longest losing streak is 168. That player is still $147,000 ahead.
The record book25,717trades made by one playerThe most anyone made in a single day: 865.
The record book433trades, every single one of them BitcoinTotal profit after all that: $781.
The record book120different things traded by one playerShares, currencies, coffee, cotton, the lot.
The record book15,470trades were closed within a second of being opened7.5% of all closed trades lasted less than five seconds.
The record book16%of players have never closed a single tradeThey opened one or more, and that was that.

Which one are you?

Ten kinds of player, and how each one did

Sort the players by what they actually do and ten kinds appear. A third are Tourists, who make a trade or two and never come back. Holders are the most likely to be ahead. Bears are close to a coin flip.

The uncomfortable result is at the top. The Gamblers, who put most of their trades on 100x, beat the index fund far more often than the Purists who never borrow. In a game that never forces anyone to sell, recklessness is rewarded. A real broker would not be so kind.

46%of Gamblers beat the index fund. Of the careful Purists, 4% did.

Which trader are you?The HolderMost trades held for over a week, or never closed.14% of players. 80% of them are ahead, and 30% beat an index fund.
Ahead of where they started80%
All players: 64%
Did better than an S&P 500 index fund30%
All players: 19%
The typical one made
$4,090
Trades, typically
7

Every player is put in the first group that fits, in this order: Tourist, Machine, Gambler, Bear, Sniper, Holder, Bitcoin Loyalist, Collector, Purist. Whoever is left is an All-Rounder. The line on each bar marks all players.

Your turn. Here is $100,000.

It isn't real, so finding out what kind of trader you are costs nothing.

100K100KTHE THREE INVESTEERS PLAY BANKONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS$100,000$100,000TI 0100000 ANOT REAL MONEY

How to read this

The money is not real
People take risks with play money that they would not take with their savings. Read this as a study of instinct, not of investing skill.
The sample
The game has about 4.9 million accounts and 65 million trades. This page uses a random sample of 62,004 players and all 799,657 trades they made between September 2021 and October 2026. 38,114 of them placed at least one trade.
The countries
The sample is limited to 58 Western and other high-income countries, so that the players are broadly comparable. Other countries may behave differently.
Markets rose
Shares, gold and crypto all climbed strongly over these years, which flatters anyone who bought and held, and punishes anyone who bet on falls.
No forced selling
The game never closes a losing position for you, so a leveraged trade can lose many times its stake and sit there until its owner closes it. A real broker would close it once the stake is gone. Real results at high leverage would be much harsher than these.
Open trades
Trades that were never closed are valued at prices from early October 2026, the way the game values them. Every profit figure includes them.
Stakes
A trade can stake $100, $500, $1,000 or $5,000. 63% of trades use the maximum. 100x leverage is rationed for players who don't pay; the other settings are free.
The index comparison
A player's total result is set against $100,000 put into the index at the middle price of the week of their first trade, and valued at early October 2026 prices. No dividends and no costs on either side. It is a hard test: the index gets the whole $100,000 from day one, and most players never stake that much.
Noise
Bitcoin's typical move over a given time is the median absolute change between one fill and the fill nearest that much later, measured on entries and exits since January 2024. Stop and target distances come from the trades that reached them.
Direction calls
The price a week after a bet is the middle price of that day's trades in our sample. Thinly traded assets and shares that split during the period are left out, which leaves 45 assets and 676,180 bets.
What we left out
3,635 trades whose recorded result was an artefact. The game does not adjust open positions for stock splits, so a share that splits ten for one looks like a 90% fall, and a few prices in the feed were plainly wrong.
Not advice
Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
The numbers behind the charts
Players who did better than buying one thing on day one and leaving it
Compared withAll playersPlayers with 5+ tradesWhat it made
S&P 50018.6%26.3%$33,800
Nasdaq 10015.4%22.4%$51,400
Gold28.9%34.7%$56,200
Bitcoin41.2%45.5%$25,600
Where the accounts ended up
ResultPlayersShare
Lost more than 10%3,1698.3%
Lost up to 10%10,62527.9%
Gained up to 10%15,55040.8%
Gained 10% to 100%4,50911.8%
Doubled or more3,4739.1%
Ten times or more7882.1%
First trade ever, share of players
AssetShare
Bitcoin47.0%
Apple8.8%
Nasdaq 1005.1%
Gold4.5%
Crude oil4.2%
XRP3.7%
Ethereum3.7%
Tesla3.3%
Everything else19.7%
Trades by how long they were held
Held forShare of tradesEnded in profitMiddle return
Under a minute29.5%56.9%0.01%
1 to 5 minutes13.6%60.8%0.04%
5 to 60 minutes11.9%64.1%0.20%
1 to 24 hours16.3%70.7%1.91%
1 to 7 days11.0%74.2%5.70%
Over a week7.6%73.7%16.59%
Never closed10.1%63.2%27.72%
Trades by leverage
LeverageShare of tradesEnded in profitGained half or moreLost nearly all
None25.3%56.9%4.1%0.3%
5x7.3%61.1%8.0%2.5%
10x6.9%63.3%9.7%3.6%
20x44.4%67.3%9.1%3.3%
100x16.1%69.8%33.2%10.5%
Ordinary purchases with no leverage: return on the money put in
BoughtSoldForgotten
Crypto1.0%27.3%
Shares1.6%55.9%
Indexes0.7%35.1%
Commodities1.0%32.5%
Currencies0.2%2.6%
The same players, trade by trade
TradeNo leverage100xBet on a fallAverage stakeEnded in profit
152.4%11.7%16.6%$1,84153.9%
244.8%14.4%20.0%$2,17759.9%
342.1%16.2%20.0%$2,36661.0%
537.5%18.1%18.8%$2,55262.1%
1033.2%12.8%22.0%$2,82964.3%
1530.0%11.7%22.8%$2,97065.6%
2028.5%11.2%23.1%$3,07865.5%
2527.8%11.8%23.7%$3,16965.9%
3026.7%13.2%23.4%$3,20565.8%
The trade after a win and the trade after a loss
After a winAfter a loss
Started the next trade within a minute57.3%64.9%
Raised the leverage12.2%14.9%
Raised the stake10.8%14.1%
The next trade ended in profit67.6%51.8%
Trades closed by hand within a day, by the price move at the close
Price had movedClosed at a gainClosed at a lossGains per loss
0.1% to 0.3%44,33918,0522.5
0.3% to 0.6%24,5948,6132.9
0.6% to 1%14,6814,9902.9
1% to 2%15,4285,1133.0
2% to 5%9,8483,3472.9
Bets that were right a week later, by what the price did the week before
The week beforeBetsBets on a fallBets on a rise: rightBets on a fall: right
Fell 10% or more35,89630.1%58.7%38.9%
Fell 3% to 10%112,64128.5%55.2%45.8%
Barely moved326,11524.8%54.0%46.3%
Rose 3% to 10%134,52724.8%47.4%53.5%
Rose 10% or more67,00126.1%51.6%45.7%
Bitcoin: the typical move after a given time
AfterTypical moveThree in four are within
30 s0.022%0.048%
1 min0.032%0.067%
2 min0.047%0.097%
5 min0.077%0.158%
10 min0.111%0.220%
20 min0.151%0.303%
30 min0.182%0.365%
1 h0.252%0.503%
2 h0.344%0.685%
4 h0.472%0.955%
8 h0.682%1.367%
16 h0.996%1.966%
24 h1.291%2.477%
Bitcoin trades with a stop-loss and a target, by leverage
LeverageStopTargetReward to riskBreak-even win rateStopped-out trades lastedNoise predictsClosed by hand first
None1.01%2.51%2.5 to 129%11 hours16 hours77%
5x0.22%0.51%2.3 to 130%41 minutes44 minutes63%
10x0.25%0.50%2.0 to 133%26 minutes60 minutes51%
20x0.08%0.25%3.0 to 125%5.5 minutes5.9 minutes46%
100x0.11%0.20%1.9 to 134%8.7 minutes9.4 minutes46%
Assets with at least 2,000 trades
AssetTypeTradesBets on a fallEnded in profit
BitcoinCrypto187,73731.9%60.2%
XRPCrypto59,03431.3%61.0%
EthereumCrypto56,06828.9%65.4%
Nasdaq 100Indexes43,15126.9%66.5%
Crude oilCommodities33,60121.8%65.7%
GoldCommodities33,49121.4%67.3%
AppleShares30,64917.9%63.6%
TeslaShares24,91222.6%64.3%
Natural gasCommodities19,86618.9%63.4%
Dow JonesIndexes18,13322.5%67.6%
LitecoinCrypto14,94028.4%63.9%
StellarCrypto14,44527.6%61.8%
AmazonShares12,98415.6%70.3%
NvidiaShares11,76015.8%71.6%
MetaShares10,93818.2%69.9%
Euro / dollarCurrencies10,54925.7%62.4%
NEOCrypto9,73941.3%70.5%
SilverCommodities9,67317.2%70.4%
QtumCrypto8,75221.1%60.7%
Brent oilCommodities8,40118.2%71.3%
AMCShares8,25527.8%56.4%
S&P 500Indexes8,11617.7%72.7%
Volatility indexIndexes7,67415.8%63.0%
GameStopShares6,69218.9%66.2%
AMDShares6,37716.1%74.1%
MicrosoftShares6,30215.0%73.4%
Bitcoin CashCrypto6,19423.2%60.3%
NetflixShares5,95817.6%65.5%
TronCrypto5,87720.9%67.0%
Virgin GalacticShares5,57416.8%55.4%
Pound / dollarCurrencies5,07022.7%65.9%
PlatinumCommodities4,80316.2%69.8%
Russell 2000Indexes4,45718.0%75.4%
AlibabaShares4,39615.7%64.9%
FTSE 100Indexes4,27417.5%73.8%
CopperCommodities4,05315.2%73.6%
TilrayShares3,79315.9%60.8%
CottonCommodities3,67015.1%64.1%
Hang SengIndexes3,57317.7%71.6%
Dollar / yenCurrencies3,35420.9%70.4%
EOSCrypto2,80718.6%63.3%
Aussie dollar / yenCurrencies2,74719.2%72.2%
Plug PowerShares2,70516.0%55.7%
Aussie dollar / dollarCurrencies2,64318.9%71.0%
Euro / Canadian dollarCurrencies2,63317.3%70.5%
CAC 40Indexes2,58517.5%68.0%
NZ dollar / dollarCurrencies2,49518.6%59.3%
Dollar / Canadian dollarCurrencies2,44717.2%70.4%
Dollar / francCurrencies2,39618.2%67.7%
Euro / Aussie dollarCurrencies2,37315.5%60.7%
Canadian dollar / yenCurrencies2,32517.0%70.8%
Euro / poundCurrencies2,32317.3%65.3%
Pound / yenCurrencies2,01020.4%71.9%
Players in profit, iPhone and Android
iPhoneAndroidiPhone playersAndroid players
All players61.6%65.0%13,41823,789
United States only60.0%65.3%7,4957,281
Started in 202365.6%68.6%1,7084,239
Started in 202465.8%68.4%3,7239,512
Started in 202557.0%58.4%4,4756,483
Started in 202660.8%63.5%3,3392,831
Ten kinds of player
KindShare of playersAheadBeat the S&P 500Typical profitTypical trades
The Tourist31.5%57.2%8.0%$11
The Holder14.2%79.5%29.8%$4,0907
The Sniper10.1%56.3%9.6%$38
The Gambler8.5%71.0%45.7%$10,7457
The Bear7.4%51.2%8.4%$09
The Collector7.3%71.5%39.0%$8,86654
The Purist4.5%63.9%3.8%$198
The Bitcoin Loyalist1.9%55.6%8.5%$26
The Machine0.6%73.6%52.5%$49,910460
The All-Rounder14.0%66.9%20.3%$47812
The top 1% of players against everyone
Top 1%Everyone
Used 100x at least once99.7%41.8%
Average leverage56x22x
Trades that bet on a fall7.8%19.2%
Share of all profit held by the top players
Top share of playersShare of profit
1%39.1%
2%54.3%
5%77.2%
10%91.7%
20%98.7%
50%100.0%
Countries
Country100x tradesCryptoBets on fallsClosed in a minuteNever closedPlayers in profit
United States18%46%24%32%11%63%
United Kingdom18%44%25%31%9%65%
Germany17%44%25%29%10%65%
Canada13%46%24%33%10%66%
Italy13%45%26%32%9%62%
France12%42%28%24%11%63%
Australia15%45%14%32%12%66%
Spain13%44%27%30%9%66%
Netherlands16%40%27%27%10%69%
Belgium15%46%23%29%12%64%
Czechia15%50%26%32%12%63%
Switzerland20%45%21%29%9%64%
Singapore14%43%29%27%10%60%
Israel18%44%24%35%14%62%
Sweden34%40%21%24%11%65%
Hungary16%42%26%24%10%63%
Austria14%39%17%33%8%66%