Congress Stock Traders Still Outperform S&P500

In 2021, the potential insider trading cases of the US Congress shocked the whole world. One of the catalysts was congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, whose husband Paul Pelosi had allegedly made more than $30 million by trading stocks of the big companies that his wife is regulating.

Berita tentang dagangan mereka tersebar seperti api merentasi TikTok, Reddit dan Instagram. Salah satu kes yang paling jelas ialah perjanjian Nvidia.

Pelosi’s husband bought the Nvidia stocks a month before an announcement came out saying that the US government would buy a supercomputer made with Nvidia microchips.

nancy pelosi dagangan saham orang dalam

Suddenly wide masses understood that senators might be trading using advanced knowledge about impactful events.

As a result, many young investors adopted a new trading strategy: looking at the financial disclosures of politicians and copying their trades.

Keputusan perdagangan Kongres Vs S&P 500

So how easy is it for congressmen to make money with insider information? Most of them are not professional traders, and even with insider knowledge, it’s not always possible to predict the movements of stock prices. Even the big hedge funds, with their strategi ramalan saham lanjutan jangan selalu mengalahkan pasaran umum.

Ramai ahli ekonomi telah meremehkan idea bahawa ahli politik lebih berjaya daripada purata apabila ia datang untuk melabur dalam pasaran saham. Ada yang berpendapat bahawa kelewatan 45 hari dalam melaporkan dagangan boleh menjadi kelewatan yang terlalu besar untuk menangkap dagangan sebelum pasaran telah bergerak.

Luckily, it’s possible to check this out.

Members of Congress have had to publish their trades since 2012, and there have been various academic studies on trading on insider purchases. Penyelidik melakukan kajian dengan berdagang saham saham dalam a simulator perdagangan saham selepas orang dalam membeli atau menjualnya baru-baru ini.

Some of those studies have shown that insiders can outperform the market by up to 36%* dalam tempoh 1 tahun.

Seorang pengguna di Reddit has been collecting stock trading data from US congressmen and has built an algorithm that copies their trades. 

Seperti yang anda lihat, Kongres AS secara keseluruhannya telah mengatasi prestasi S&P 500 dengan ketara dalam tempoh 6 bulan.

Where can I see Congress member stock trades?

Akta Saham, yang ditandatangani oleh Presiden Obama pada 2012, memerlukan pegawai awam untuk membuat urus niaga mereka kepada umum supaya orang ramai dapat melihat apa yang mereka lakukan.

Akta Saham memerlukan penggubal undang-undang melaporkan semua perdagangan dan memfailkan laporan dalam tempoh 45 hari dari tarikh dagangan.

This law was meant to help prevent conflicts of interest by requiring the public disclosure of these trades by members of Congress. The hope was that this would encourage them to act in an ethical manner when making decisions that could affect their own investments.

Undang-undang juga menghendaki orang ramai boleh mengakses rekod ini dengan mudah, yang telah membawa kepada peningkatan ketelusan dalam kerajaan.

data dagangan orang dalam - ringkasan transaksi perdagangan saham nancy pelosi

Some of the sites where you can see insider trading activities are Openinsider dan HouseStockWatcher di mana anda boleh menapis ahli politik tertentu dengan mudah.

Nancy Pelosi – the most famous Congress trader.

Kemungkinan aktiviti perdagangan orang dalam Pelosi berlaku bertahun-tahun lamanya. Dia pertama kali dipilih ke Kongres pada tahun 1987 dan telah menjadi ahli lembaga pengarah untuk Goldman Sachs sejak 1990. Sejak itu, dia telah dikenali sebagai salah seorang orang dalam mereka yang paling setia—walaupun ketika mereka terlibat dalam memberikan maklumat orang dalam tentang perumahan itu. keruntuhan pasaran.

Some speculate that Pelosi has made over $100 million by selling off stocks just hours before they crashed. She also had access to information about upcoming tax laws that allowed her to sell off shares in companies like Apple and Google at record-low prices.

Indeks pelosi vs sp500

Nancy Pelosi does not trade stocks herself; it’s done by her husband, Paul Pelosi, who owns an investment firm called “Financial Leasing Services”. So traders are looking for his firm’s disclosures when they want to tap into the wisdom and connections of Nancy.

The Pelosi family’s overall portfolio has beaten the S&P 500 by 4.9 percent in 2019 and a juicy 14.3 percent in 2020, and it has kept topping the market in 2022 as well.

Kongres bergerak untuk melarang ahli daripada berdagang saham

Jika anda ingin mengambil kesempatan daripada dagangan saham ahli politik AS yang tersedia secara terbuka, anda perlu bertindak pantas. Congress is planning to ban members from trading stocks, and the new law is expected to be put up for a vote sometime in 2022.

One of the biggest obstacles and blockers to this new law was Nancy herself, because if family members were banned from trading, her husband Paul would lose his job.

Kesimpulan

Despite the controversies and scandals, US politicians have kept trading stocks for years, and it has been profitable, according to research. The looming risk of a kejatuhan pasaran saham might decrease the trading activities of politicians, as even the pro investors are uncertain about the markets.

With the upcoming ban for Congress members from trading stocks, insider trading could become less popular; however, the smartest ones will likely find or create loopholes to continue exploiting their “psychic” kemahiran ramalan harga saham

Daniel Ug
Daniel Ug

Pengasas bersama di Three Investeers dan Permainan Simulator Pasaran Saham. Daniel mempunyai ijazah Sarjana Muda dalam Kewangan & Teknologi Maklumat daripada BA School of Business and Finance, Latvia.

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